THE CHANCE FOR THE CITY-DESTROYING ASTEROID HITTING EARTH INCREASES
NASA has warned that a massive space rock could be threatening to strike Earth and endanger the lives of about 110 million people. NASA spotted the 2024 YR4 asteroid in orbit in December of last year. It is tens of thousands of miles away, but it could actually strike Earth in 2032. According to reports, the enormous "city killer" rock is as large as the Statue of Liberty in New York, Big Ben in London, or Cinderella's Castle at Walt Disney World in Florida. If it collides with Earth, it could detonate with the force of 500 atomic bombs.
Since then, eight of the most populous cities in the world—Bogotá, Abidjan, Lagos, Khartoum, Mumbai, Kolkata, and Dhaka—have received warnings that the space rock may be on its hit list. However, some astronomers have sparked concerns that any attempt to stop the rock—by blasting it with rockets—could present an even greater disaster, while others have urged calm, saying it is more unlikely than likely to strike.
Additionally, NASA has had several shifts in opinion regarding the true level of risk it poses. The odds of hitting home were 1.2 percent at first, rising to 2.3 percent, then 2.6 percent, and, as of February 18, a frightening 3.1 percent, according to the space experts. This made it the highest risk level of any large asteroid in history, even that of the ominously named 'God of Chaos' asteroid found in 2004.
However, as of Wednesday night (February 19), NASA reports that the probability has fallen back to 1.5 percent, so we can all now breathe a sigh of relief. Oh, phew. According to a blog post, the US agency saw 2024 YR4 as the sky grew darker "after a week of limited visibility" because of the full moon. This is because the moonlight makes the sky too bright to see asteroids, which are "very faint." In any case, new research from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California has observed the asteroid and decreased the likelihood that it will strike humans and the moon, which has a 0.8 percent chance of doing so.
NASA claims that its forecast of the asteroid's trajectory "improves with every observation" and that these observations "have further constrained the uncertainty around the asteroid’s trajectory." You might sleep better tonight knowing that there is a 98.1 percent chance that the rock will just fly by us without hurting us, even though there is still a chance it could hit home. Astronomer Bryce Bolin of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center described the asteroid as "extremely exciting."
"Not only because of its notoriety but for the scientific potential of studying such a small asteroid in high detail. Only a few asteroids have been studied like this," he added.
The author of the book How to Kill an Asteroid: The Real Science of Planetary Defense, Dr Robin George Andrews, is cautioning against removing the asteroid from its course.
"Those components can still head for Earth, so nobody wants to accidentally 'disrupt' an asteroid," he stated. "It's like turning a cannonball into a shotgun spray, as I often say."
"It could be bigger or smaller," he continued. "We might not be able to deflect it with one spacecraft if it's too large. It would take multiple strikes to hit it flawlessly without breaking it."
